A potential trade war between the US and China could threaten global oil demand and even 

target  US  crude  exports,  curbing  flows  that  are  needed  to  absorb  booming US shale 

production and limit inventory builds. 

US crude stocks typically build this time of year US propane exports to China at risk LOOP 

Sour at $1.49/b discount to Dubai, CFR North Asia 

That would mark a turnaround, as stocks have tightened relative to the five-year average 

since  in  mid-September,  falling  to  a  deficit  the  last  three  weeks, Energy Information 

Administration data shows. 

The amount of crude in storage equaled 425.33 million barrels the week that ended March 

30, less than 1 million barrels above the level at the end of 2017. 

That  is  unusual  because crude stocks typically build sharply the first three months of the 

calendar year. For the same period, stocks increased 56.5 million barrels in 2017 and by 50

.1 million barrels on average from 2013-17. 

Analysts surveyed Monday by S&P Global Platts expect crude stocks built 100,000 barrels la

st week. The five-year average shows a build of 1.9 million barrels. 

Inventories sit at the lowest level for this time of year since 2014, even though US production 

has exploded. 

The latest EIA weekly estimates pegged output at 10.46 million b/d, a year-on-year increase 

of 1.2 million b/d. 

Elevated exports have allowed US production to skyrocket without the corresponding build in 

storage levels. 

US crude exports have averaged 1.52 million b/d year to date, about double the level for the 

same period a year ago. 

Exports were 2.175 million b/d the week ending March 30, beating the previous record high 

set the week late October at 2.133 million b/d.