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Libya and Nigeria can expect to face growing pressure from their OPEC counterparts to end
their exemptions from production cuts and accept an output quota, when ministers meet
Thursday for a closely watched summit.
Output caps could be discussed for both countries: sources Uncertain Libyan outlook may
cushion it from getting a quota Condensate question helps keep Nigeria output below 1.8 mi
l b/d
While the production outlooks for both countries remain hazy due to political, security and
technical challenges, voices have been growing louder within OPEC that their output has
recovered sufficiently to join in their market rebalancing efforts, sources told S&P Global
Platts.
"I think both countries will be discussed," an OPEC source told Platts, but he declined to say
whether members would insist on imposing quotas.
One option being discussed is a "loose" quota that would be triggered if production in either
country rises to a certain level, while another option would be to place a quota right at or
above each country's production target, to at least symbolize that they are willing to accept a
cap, other sources and analysts said.
But it is entirely possible that both countries' exemptions will be maintained, as they have bee
n vehemently opposed to any output restrictions while they recover from militancy, the
sources said.
Officials from Libya and Nigeria did not respond to requests for comment.
OPEC granted Libya and Nigeria their exemptions when the 1.8 million b/d production cut
agreement with 10 non-OPEC countries was negotiated late last year, as the two African
nations dealt with internal strife and civil unrest that had targeted their oil infrastructure.
But both countries have seen sharp rises in production this year, partially undoing the impac
t of OPEC's collective supply reductions.
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