Amid the European Commission's recent hot rolled coil (HRC) anti-dumping duties and a corr

esponding  fall  of  imports  into  the  European Union, the spread between domestic northern 

European prices and imports has tightened dramatically. 

The  differential  between S&P Global Platts ex-works Ruhr and CIF Antwerp indices is now a 

mere  Eur10/mt,  meaning import  arrivals are likely to diminish, perhaps bolstering European  

suppliers' hopes for higher levels. 

Between 2011 and August 2017, spreads between the daily prices averaged Eur18.60/mt, b 

ut with  wild  swings.  There  was  a  negative  spread of Eur8.50/mt in November 2014 and a 

spread of slightly above Eur70/mt in April 2011. 

Import  volume  and  pricing  data  shows  third-country  shipments  into  the  EU consistently 

responded   to  a  change  in  spreads.  However,  the  level  of  import  volumes  has  risen 

considerably  since  2015  due  to  increased  overproduction  in Asia absorbing much of the 

European demand increase. 

Between 2011 and 2014, a Eur20/mt spread between domestic and import prices saw import

s into the EU total approximately 500,000-550,000 mt per month. Yet between 2015 and 2017

, at the same spread between import and domestic prices, EU countries imported close to 700 

,000 mt on average. 

While spreads of below Eur10/mt seen in August are infrequent, the western European HRC 

market has witnessed this several times within the last two years; each time this margin corre 

sponded with monthly EU imports of around 550,000 mt to 600,000 mt. 

With  an  average lead time of slightly under two months, however, spreads of Eur 8.29/mt in September, and October at only Eur5.29/mt, point to even lower levels of imports into the EU 

in November and December.