Australia's thermal coal exports are forecast to grow 0.7%/year through to fiscal 2021-2022 

(July-June) on demand from India and the ASEAN towards the end of the period, according 

to the government's Resources and Energy Quarterly released late Friday. 

Exports  totaled  201.3 million mt in fiscal 2015-2016, and are estimated at 202.2 million mt 

for  fiscal  2016-2017. They  are forecast to gradually increase to 209.4 million mt by fiscal 2021-2022. 

India's imports of Australian thermal coal are expected to fall from an estimated 166 million 

mt in calendar 2016 to 161 million mt in 2017, and to 157 million mt in 2019 before rising to 

175 million mt by 2022. 

Increased  production  by state-owned Coal India Ltd. is a reason for the decline in imports, 

the  report  said. But  that  is  expected to grow later due to new advanced coal-fired power 

plants that will require higher calorific material, which isn't available domestically. 

Indonesian  exports  and  Chinese  imports, meanwhile,  each  saw growth in 2016, but are 

both forecast to fall through to 2022, the report said. 

Indonesia's exports rose in 2016 because previously unprofitable mines due to lower therm

al coal prices hiked their output and exports to take advantage of rising prices. 

But, the country's thermal coal exports are forecast to decline at an average rate of 1% per 

year from 379 million mt in 2016 to 357 million mt in 2022, which would be similar to its 2011 

export levels.