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Barcelona — North American shale gas is cheap and abundant, factors that have fixed the
world's attention on the continent to fuel the bulk of future LNG export growth.
But there are challenges ahead.
From pressure to consider new pricing mechanisms and more flexible terms to the potential
of greater difficulty accessing feedgas supplies, the dozen or so US projects that are
expected to make up the second wave of export capacity have a lot to consider, analysts,
developers and market observers said Wednesday as the Gastech conference in Spain
wrapped up its third day.
"LNG buyers could have to be chasing gas around the United States," Kristy Kramer, Wood
Mackenzie's head of Americas gas research, told a group of several hundred global market
leaders.
Kramer said the US Gulf Coast is expected to get more crowded after 2020, and the pipeline
capacity needed to reach supply will be harder to come by.
However, US producers' strategies were also changing, with an increasing willingness to take
US pipeline capacity and gain exposure to the international LNG markets. As inter-basin
pricing spreads are starting to wide n out, producers are also keener on exploring the
business opportunities of participating in the global LNG markets.
While Henry Hub is expected to remain under pressure in the years to come, as high oil
forward price curves keep associated gas production growing, international LNG prices are
rising, largely driven by growing consumption from China and emerging Asian markets.
The Platts JKM has averaged around $9.50/MMBtu in 2018 to date, up by more than 50%
year on year, on more balanced fundamentals in the key Asia Pacific region.
Terminal developers, meanwhile, have sought to address the feedgas access issue by
proposing to build new pipelines. Others are seeking to tap into increasing associated gas
production in the Permian Basin that spans parts of Texas and New Mexico.
Tellurian, the owner of the proposed Driftwood LNG export terminal in Louisiana, went beyo
nd its plans to build three new pipelines in the region. It bought its own acreage in the nearby
Haynesville shale and plans to drill for its own feedgas for Driftwood, in the hopes of ensuring
steady access to supply.
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